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Daniel Mielke
2550 County Road II
Rudolph, WI 54475
PHONE # 715-344-4104
Cell 715-572-0801

 

POLLING RESULTS OF THE 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 

PRODUCED FOR THE DAN MIELKE CAMPAIGN

Released

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

WISCONSIN’S 7TH DISTRICT CONGRESSIONAL POLL

Mielke leads Duffy by 56 points in Primary

Mielke leads Obey by 18 points in General

(Mielke has potential of an additional 15 points over Obey which went to Republican contender Sean Duffy in this poll)

A poll of the Seventh District Congressional race in Wisconsin shows a remarkable lead for challenger Dan Mielke in the 2010 election cycle.  The poll finds that 78 % of registered voters prefer Republican challenger Dan Mielke, while 22% support challenger Sean Duffy in the primary race.  In the general race, again Dan Mielke takes the lead with 52%, besting 40 year incumbent, David Obey, who received only 34%.  It is a fair assumption that the 15% who voted for Republican challenger Sean Duffy will vote for Dan Mielke, giving him the potential of a 67% victory. 

The Seventh Congressional District held by David Obey since 1969 is a district that shows promise as a seat that can be overturned by the Republican Party due to Mielke’s strong name recognition from his previous 2008 run. Mielke’s 2008 election results were one of the best achieved during David Obey’s 40 year career in office.  Apparently Dan Mielke’s message has resonated with voters since 2008 because his popularity has grown.

Dan Mielke’s overall position in the race over Duffy is bolstered by a strong show of support in his home county of Portage where he holds a 63 % to 37% lead.  Mielke is also close to the incumbent with 48% to Obey’s 52%. The likelihood is that Mielke will get Duffy’s supporters votes giving him a 60% to 40% lead over Obey in the general.  The race is much closer in Duffy’s home county of Ashland where Duffy leads over Mielke with 51% to Mielke’s 49%.   A major surprise was the fact that in the Republican demographic, Sean Duffy lost to Dave Obey in 15 of the 20 counties in the district.  In one county, he tied with Obey.  Duffy lost to Obey in 18 of the 20 counties in the Independent demographic and in all 20 counties in the Democrat demographic.  Mielke beat Obey in all 20 counties of the Rep, 16 of the Ind. and in 4 of the Dem.  Duffy beat Mielke in only 1 county under each demographic.  

It is doubtful that Duffy will be able to overcome this strong of a lead by Mielke.  But it is possible that an aggressive fight between Mielke and Duffy could hurt Mielke’s run against David Obey, if Duffy’s supporters choose to vote for Obey over Mielke.  We see this as unlikely, but it could happen if emotions run high during the primary race.

Obey’s decline in 2010 could be attributed to the fact that 78% of registered voters in the 7th district feel that Congress is not doing a good job.  82 percent believe that there should be term limits for elected officials making Obey’s 40 year career a negative. 

This poll was conducted by telephone by an automated calling system.  10,802 people initially took this poll with the number falling to 9,890 by the end of the third question.  The poll began January 25th and was completed on February 8th.  This sample has a margin of error of + or - 1%.    This report also includes an analysis on a smaller group of   6559 likely voters with a margin of error of +or - 1.2%

Great care was taken to ensure that the poll was not biased in any way.  The recorded questions were asked by a young female in her mid 20s who spoke without emotion.  The required information given regarding the funding of the poll and its origin was not released until after the poll was taken to ensure impartiality. 79,360 households were called between 8:30 am to 8:30 pm.  Of the 38,181 who answered the phone, 10,802 stayed on the line to take the poll.  Of those called the demographic ratio was 35% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 27% Independent.  All votes are documented by phone number, date, time poll was taken, county of origin, demographics and results of each question polled.  The addresses of households are also available on the majority of those polled barring those who have recently moved, but kept their original phone number.

Counties included within the 7th district are Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Chippewa, northern part of Clark, Douglas, Iron, western half of Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, the southern portion of Oneida, Polk, Portage, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Taylor, Washburn,  and Wood.   There are 4 counties which contain the largest portion of the voters. They are Marathon, Portage, Wood, and Chippewa.

 

                                                               2550 County Road II,  Rudolph, WI 54475  715-344-4104

Paid for by Citizens for an Open and Honest Government Supporting Dan Mielke for Congress

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:

Is Congress doing a good job in serving the people of the United States?

Congressional Approval

Rating

Percent of Voters

Number of votes

 

Those who approve

22%

2204

 

Those who disapprove

78%

8598

 

Total number of voters

10,802

10,802

 

 

Should Congress have term limits?

Term Limits

 

Percent of Voters

Number of votes

 

Against Term Limits

18%

1886

 

For Term Limits

82%

8610

 

Total number of voters

10,496

10,496

 

 

There are three people running for Congress in your district.

David Obey is the incumbent and has been your congressman for 40 years.

Dan Mielke is a farmer, business owner and constitutional rights advocate.

Sean Duffy is a MTV Real World celebrity, a lawyer and an elected District Attorney.

Which one would you vote for if you were voting today?

Republican Primary Candidates & Democrat incumbent.

Candidates

Percent of voters

Rep

Ind

Dem

Total

David Obey

34%

17.3%

29.6%

56.1%

3331

Dan Mielke

52%

64.5%

54.6%

33.9%

5097

Sean Duffy

15%

18.2%

15.8%

10%

1462

Total polled

9890

4007

2512

3371

9890

Republican Primary Candidates

Candidates

Percent of voters

Rep

Ind

Dem

Total

Dan Mielke

78%

78%

77.6%

77.3%

5097

Sean Duffy

22%

22%

22.4%

22.7%

1462

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total polled

6,559

3312

1769

1478

6559

Note: Additional breakdown by county and a complete list of all who took the poll, along with the results are also documented.  Candidate has chosen to keep that information confidential as releasing such data could help his opponents in their campaign efforts.

 

Percent of total votes

between Obey and Mielke

 

 

 

   Combined Totals

 

 

         By %

 

 

Obey

Mielke

County

 

Total

Total

ASHLAND  

 

58%

42%

BARRON  

 

34%

66%

BAYFIELD  

 

53%

47%

BURNETT  

 

24%

76%

CHIPPEWA  

 

40%

60%

CLARK  

 

34%

66%

DOUGLAS  

 

53%

47%

IRON  

 

35%

65%

LANGLADE  

 

31%

69%

LINCOLN  

 

32%

68%

MARATHON  

 

38%

62%

ONEIDA  

 

43%

57%

POLK  

 

37%

63%

PORTAGE  

 

52%

48%

PRICE  

 

47%

53%

RUSK  

 

42%

58%

SAWYER  

 

40%

60%

TAYLOR  

 

28%

72%

WASHBURN  

 

39%

61%

WOOD  

 

34%

66%

 

 

 

 

Totals Votes

 

3331

5097

Totals %

 

40%

60%

 

 

Percent of vote totals

between Mielke and Duffy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Combined Totals

 

 

         By %

 

 

Mielke

Duffy

County

 

Total

Total

ASHLAND  

 

49%

51%

BARRON  

 

86%

14%

BAYFIELD  

 

69%

31%

BURNETT  

 

87%

13%

CHIPPEWA  

 

89%

11%

CLARK  

 

81%

19%

DOUGLAS  

 

71%

29%

IRON  

 

90%

10%

LANGLADE  

 

84%

16%

LINCOLN  

 

82%

18%

MARATHON  

 

73%

27%

ONEIDA  

 

89%

11%

POLK  

 

86%

14%

PORTAGE  

 

63%

37%

PRICE  

 

82%

18%

RUSK  

 

86%

14%

SAWYER  

 

59%

41%

TAYLOR  

 

89%

11%

WASHBURN  

 

81%

19%

WOOD  

 

77%

23%

 

 

 

 

Totals Votes

 

5097

1462

Totals %

 

78%

22%

 

Republican Demographic

Summary

 

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

TOTAL #

Question 1 

Congress approval

569

approve

3794

disapprove

 

4363

Question 2 

Term limits

490

Against term limits

3761

For term limits

 

4251

Question 3 

Candidate choice

695

Dave Obey

2583

Dan Mielke

729

Sean Duffy

4007

 

Summary

 

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

TOTAL #

Question 1 

Congress approval

13%

approve

87%

disapprove

 

100%

Question 2 

Term limits

12%

Against term limits

88%

For term limits

 

100%

Question 3 

Candidate choice

17%

Dave Obey

64%

Dan Mielke

18%

Sean Duffy

100%

 

 

Independent Demographic

Summary

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

Total #

Question 1 

Congress approval

510 

approve

2259 

disapprove

 

2769

Question 2 

Term limits

388 

Against term limits

2306 

For term limits

 

2694

Question 3 

Candidate choice

743 

Dave Obey

1372 

Dan Mielke

397 

Sean Duffy

2512

 

 

Summary

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

Total #

Question 1 

Congress approval

18%

approve

82%

disapprove

 

100%

Question 2 

Term limits

14%

Against term limits

86% 

For term limits

 

100%

Question 3 

Candidate choice

14%

Dave Obey

54%

Dan Mielke

16%

Sean Duffy

100%

Democrat Demographic

Summary

 

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

Total #

Question 1 

Congress approval

1125 

approve

2545 

disapprove

 

3670

Question 2 

Term limits

1008 

Against term limits

2543 

For term limits

 

3551

Question 3 

Candidate choice

1893 

Dave Obey

1142 

Dan Mielke

336 

Sean Duffy

3371

 

Summary

 

 

 

 

Survey Question

Key 1 Pressed

Key 2 Pressed

Key 3 Pressed

Total #

Question 1 

Congress approval

31%

approve

69%

disapprove

 

100%

Question 2 

Term limits

28%

Against term limits

72%

For term limits

 

100%

Question 3 

Candidate choice

56%

Dave Obey

34% 

Dan Mielke

10%

Sean Duffy

100%

Note:  There were a small number of keys pressed that did not correspond to the polling options offered.

. Keys pressed not corresponding to the polling options were counted as not voting.

Only key presses of 1-3 were considered valid.