Mielke For Congress

(Mielke has potential of an additional 15 points over Obey which went to Republican contender Sean Duffy in this poll)

A poll of the Seventh District Congressional race in Wisconsin shows a remarkable lead for challenger Dan Mielke in the 2010 election cycle. The poll finds that 78 % of registered voters prefer Republican challenger Dan Mielke, while 22% support challenger Sean Duffy in the primary race. In the general race, again Dan Mielke takes the lead with 52%, besting 40 year incumbent, David Obey, who received only 34%. It is a fair assumption that the 15% who voted for Republican challenger Sean Duffy will vote for Dan Mielke, giving him the potential of a 67% victory.

The Seventh Congressional District held by David Obey since 1969 is a district that shows promise as a seat that can be overturned by the Republican Party due to Mielke’s strong name recognition from his previous 2008 run. Mielke’s 2008 election results were one of the best achieved during David Obey’s 40 year career in office. Apparently Dan Mielke’s message has resonated with voters since 2008 because his popularity has grown.

Dan Mielke’s overall position in the race over Duffy is bolstered by a strong show of support in his home county of Portage where he holds a 63 % to 37% lead. Mielke is also close to the incumbent with 48% to Obey’s 52%. The likelihood is that Mielke will get Duffy’s supporters votes giving him a 60% to 40% lead over Obey in the general. The race is much closer in Duffy’s home county of Ashland where Duffy leads over Mielke with 51% to Mielke’s 49%. A major surprise was the fact that in the Republican demographic, Sean Duffy lost to Dave Obey in 15 of the 20 counties in the district. In one county, he tied with Obey. Duffy lost to Obey in 18 of the 20 counties in the Independent demographic and in all 20 counties in the Democrat demographic. Mielke beat Obey in all 20 counties of the Rep, 16 of the Ind. and in 4 of the Dem. Duffy beat Mielke in only 1 county under each demographic.

It is doubtful that Duffy will be able to overcome this strong of a lead by Mielke. But it is possible that an aggressive fight between Mielke and Duffy could hurt Mielke’s run against David Obey, if Duffy’s supporters choose to vote for Obey over Mielke. We see this as unlikely, but it could happen if emotions run high during the primary race.

Obey’s decline in 2010 could be attributed to the fact that 78% of registered voters in the 7^th district feel that Congress is not doing a good job. 82 percent believe that there should be term limits for elected officials making Obey’s 40 year career a negative.

This poll was conducted by telephone by an automated calling system. 10,802 people initially took this poll with the number falling to 9,890 by the end of the third question. The poll began January 25^th and was completed on February 8^th. This sample has a margin of error of + or - 1%. This report also includes an analysis on a smaller group of 6559 likely voters with a margin of error of +or - 1.2%

Great care was taken to ensure that the poll was not biased in any way. The recorded questions were asked by a young female in her mid 20s who spoke without emotion. The required information given regarding the funding of the poll and its origin was not released until after the poll was taken to ensure impartiality. 79,360 households were called between 8:30 am to 8:30 pm. Of the 38,181 who answered the phone, 10,802 stayed on the line to take the poll. Of those called the demographic ratio was 35% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 27% Independent. All votes are documented by phone number, date, time poll was taken, county of origin, demographics and results of each question polled. The addresses of households are also available on the majority of those polled barring those who have recently moved, but kept their original phone number.

Counties included within the 7^th district are Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Chippewa, northern part of Clark, Douglas, Iron, western half of Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, the southern portion of Oneida, Polk, Portage, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Taylor, Washburn, and Wood. There are 4 counties which contain the largest portion of the voters. They are Marathon, Portage, Wood, and Chippewa.

Paid for by Citizens for an Open and Honest Government Supporting Dan Mielke for Congress

Sean Duffy is a MTV Real World celebrity, a lawyer and an elected District Attorney.

Candidates	Percent of voters	Rep	Ind	Dem	Total
David Obey	34%	17.3%	29.6%	56.1%	3331
Dan Mielke	52%	64.5%	54.6%	33.9%	5097
Sean Duffy	15%	18.2%	15.8%	10%	1462
Total polled	9890	4007	2512	3371	9890

Candidates	Percent of voters	Rep	Ind	Dem	Total
Dan Mielke	78%	78%	77.6%	77.3%	5097
Sean Duffy	22%	22%	22.4%	22.7%	1462

Total polled	6,559	3312	1769	1478	6559

Note: Additional breakdown by county and a complete list of all who took the poll, along with the results are also documented. Candidate has chosen to keep that information confidential as releasing such data could help his opponents in their campaign efforts.

	Combined Totals
	By %
	Obey	Mielke
County	Total	Total
ASHLAND	58%	42%
BARRON	34%	66%
BAYFIELD	53%	47%
BURNETT	24%	76%
CHIPPEWA	40%	60%
CLARK	34%	66%
DOUGLAS	53%	47%
IRON	35%	65%
LANGLADE	31%	69%
LINCOLN	32%	68%
MARATHON	38%	62%
ONEIDA	43%	57%
POLK	37%	63%
PORTAGE	52%	48%
PRICE	47%	53%
RUSK	42%	58%
SAWYER	40%	60%
TAYLOR	28%	72%
WASHBURN	39%	61%
WOOD	34%	66%

Totals Votes	3331	5097
Totals %	40%	60%


	Combined Totals
	By %
	Mielke	Duffy
County	Total	Total
ASHLAND	49%	51%
BARRON	86%	14%
BAYFIELD	69%	31%
BURNETT	87%	13%
CHIPPEWA	89%	11%
CLARK	81%	19%
DOUGLAS	71%	29%
IRON	90%	10%
LANGLADE	84%	16%
LINCOLN	82%	18%
MARATHON	73%	27%
ONEIDA	89%	11%
POLK	86%	14%
PORTAGE	63%	37%
PRICE	82%	18%
RUSK	86%	14%
SAWYER	59%	41%
TAYLOR	89%	11%
WASHBURN	81%	19%
WOOD	77%	23%

Totals Votes	5097	1462
Totals %	78%	22%

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	TOTAL #
Question 1 Congress approval	569 approve	3794 disapprove		4363
Question 2 Term limits	490 Against term limits	3761 For term limits		4251
Question 3 Candidate choice	695 Dave Obey	2583 Dan Mielke	729 Sean Duffy	4007

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	TOTAL #
Question 1 Congress approval	13% approve	87% disapprove		100%
Question 2 Term limits	12% Against term limits	88% For term limits		100%
Question 3 Candidate choice	17% Dave Obey	64% Dan Mielke	18% Sean Duffy	100%

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	Total #
Question 1 Congress approval	510 approve	2259 disapprove		2769
Question 2 Term limits	388 Against term limits	2306 For term limits		2694
Question 3 Candidate choice	743 Dave Obey	1372 Dan Mielke	397 Sean Duffy	2512

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	Total #
Question 1 Congress approval	18% approve	82% disapprove		100%
Question 2 Term limits	14% Against term limits	86% For term limits		100%
Question 3 Candidate choice	14% Dave Obey	54% Dan Mielke	16% Sean Duffy	100%

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	Total #
Question 1 Congress approval	1125 approve	2545 disapprove		3670
Question 2 Term limits	1008 Against term limits	2543 For term limits		3551
Question 3 Candidate choice	1893 Dave Obey	1142 Dan Mielke	336 Sean Duffy	3371

Summary
Survey Question	Key 1 Pressed	Key 2 Pressed	Key 3 Pressed	Total #
Question 1 Congress approval	31% approve	69% disapprove		100%
Question 2 Term limits	28% Against term limits	72% For term limits		100%
Question 3 Candidate choice	56% Dave Obey	34% Dan Mielke	10% Sean Duffy	100%

Note: There were a small number of keys pressed that did not correspond to the polling options offered.

. Keys pressed not corresponding to the polling options were counted as not voting.